Friday, May 15, 2015

MEMO: CONNECTICUT STATEWIDE SURVEY FINDINGS

TO: Zach Janowski, Yankee Institute for Public Policy

FROM: Cory Brown, VP – Data & Strategy

RE: Issue Testing Survey of Likely General Election Voters in Connecticut

Cygnal conducted a statewide survey in Connecticut earlier this week on behalf of the Yankee Institute
for Public Policy. The goal was to examine the current state of public opinion among likely general
election voters in Connecticut around the issue of the current budget proposals and the constitutional
spending cap.

 

KEY FINDINGS

Connecticut Voters have concerns about the state’s leadership and direction. 58% of voters
disapprove of the job Governor Malloy is doing, while 56% disapprove of the job the state legislature
is doing. 60% of Connecticut voters feel the state is on the wrong track.

Governor’s approval rating

• The only segments in which he has more approval than disapproval are African Americans,
respondents who chose liberal for ideology, voters ages 18-34 and Democrats.
• 78% of conservatives and 61% of moderates disapprove of the job the Governor is doing while
69% of liberals approve.
• Voters age 18 to 34 approve of his job more than disapprove (43% to 41%). He performs worst
with those ages 50 to 64 (62% disapprove).
• Both men and women express disapproval (Men – 61%; Women – 56%).
• In all 5 congressional districts he is upside down, but performs best in CT-3 and worst in CT-2
and CT-5.
• Both Republicans and non-partisans express disapproval (Republicans – 83%; Non-Partisans
– 64%). 63% of Democrats approve.

Legislature’s approval rating
• The only segments in which the Legislature has more approval than disapproval are African
Americans, respondents who chose liberal for ideology, and Democrats.
• 71% of conservatives and 58% of moderates disapprove of the job the Governor is doing while
62% of liberals approve.
• Among all ages the Legislature is upside down. Voters ages 65 or older are where the
Legislature performs best (40% approval). It performs worst with those ages 50 to 64 (61%
disapprove).
• Both men and women express disapproval (Men – 61%; Women – 52%).
• In all 5 congressional districts the Legislature is upside down, but performs best in CT-4 and
worst in CT-2 and CT-5.
• Both Republicans and non-partisans express disapproval (Republicans – 74%; Non-Partisans
– 61%). 57% of Democrats approve.

Right Track v. Wrong Track
• The only segments that feel Connecticut is on the right track are African Americans,
respondents who chose liberal for ideology, and Democrats.
• 78% of conservatives and 64% of moderates feel the state is on the wrong track while 66%
feel it’s on the right track.
• All ages believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. Voters ages 18 to 34 have the most
optimism (39% right track). It performs worst with those ages 50 or older (62% wrong track).
• Both men and women feel Connecticut is on the wrong track (Men – 62%; Women – 58%).
• Both Republicans and non-partisans choose wrong track (Republicans – 82%; Non-Partisans –
65%). 58% of Democrats choose right track.

Constitutional spending cap. 82% of voters agree with spending cap. 70% support the current
structure of the spending cap.

Who agrees with the spending cap?
• All ideologies. Conservatives at 93% | Moderates at 84% | Liberals at 62%
• All age groups. 18 to 34 at 80% | 35 to 49 at 76% | 50 to 64 at 83% | 65 or older at 85%
• Men (81%) | Women (83%)
• Popular all across the state. CT-1 at 79% | CT-2 at 83% | CT-3 at 80% | CT-4 at 80% | CT-5 at
86%
• All ethnic groups
• Voters of every party. Democrats at 71% | Non-partisans at 83% | Republicans at 93%

Who supports the structure of the spending cap?
• All ideologies. Conservatives at 78% | Moderates at 73% | Liberals at 53%
• All age groups. 18 to 34 at 56% | 35 to 49 at 64% | 50 to 64 at 72% | 65 or older at 76%
• Men (71%) | Women (69%)
• Popular all across the state. CT-1 at 68% | CT-2 at 71% | CT-3 at 68% | CT-4 at 66% | CT-5 at
77%
• All ethnic groups
• Voters of every party. Democrats at 62% | Non-partisans at 69% | Republicans at 81%

The GOP proposal is the most popular while voters are against both the Governor’s and
Democrats’ proposals. 56% of voters support the Republican proposal while only 36% support the
Democrats’ proposal and 25% support the Governor’s proposal.

Republicans’ proposal support
• Conservatives at 76% | Moderates at 57% | Liberals at 26%
• 18 to 34 at 48% | 35 to 49 at 54% | 50 to 64 at 60% | 65 or older at 56%
• Men (60%) | Women (53%).
• CT-1, CT-2 and CT-4 at 55% | CT-3 at 51% | CT-5 at 63%.
• Republicans at 77% | Non-partisans at 60% | Democrats at 36%

Democrats’ proposal support
• Conservatives at 21% | Moderates at 30% | Liberals at 63%
• 18 to 34 at 40% | 35 to 49 at 38% | 50 to 64 at 36% | 65 or older at 34%
• Men (33%) | Women (39%)
• CT-1, CT-2 and CT-4 at 39% | CT-3 at 37% | CT-5 at 26%
• Republicans at 19% | Non-partisans at 29% | Democrats at 54%

Governor’s proposal support
• Conservatives at 16% | Moderates at 21% | Liberals at 45%
• 18 to 34 at 33% | 35 to 49 at 29% | 50 or older at 23%
• Men (27%) | Women (24%)
• CT-1 at 27% | CT-2 at 23% | CT-3 at 26% | CT-4 at 29% | CT-5 at 21%
• Republicans at 16% | Non-partisans at 20% | Democrats at 38%

A few hundred Connecticut taxpayers pay 10 percent of total state tax collection. Do you agree
or disagree that asking them to pay more might result in them leaving Connecticut – and paying
nothing? 64% of voters agree with this. How does this stance break down?

• Conservatives at 81% | Moderates at 65% | Liberals at 36%
• 18 to 49 at 63% | 50 to 64 at 65% | 65 or older at 63%
• Men (63%) | Women (64%)
• CT-1 and CT-2 at 63% | CT-3 at 60% | CT-4 at 64% | CT-5 at 67%
• Republicans at 76% | Non-partisans at 67% | Democrats at 50%

Neither raising taxes nor increasing spending above the state cap is a good thing if you will be
on the ballot in 2016. 70% of voters are less likely to support lawmakers if they vote to increase
taxes. 73% of voters are less likely to support lawmakers if they vote to increase spending above the
constitutional cap

Raising taxes support profile
• Conservatives: More likely – 14% | Less Likely – 82%
• Moderates: More likely – 15% | Less likely – 74%
• Liberals: More likely – 37% | Less likely – 45%
• 18 to 34: More likely – 28% | Less likely – 57%
• 35 to 49: More likely – 20% | Less likely – 66%
• 50 to 64: More likely – 21% | Less likely – 73%
• 65 or older: More likely – 18% | Less likely – 74%
• Men: More likely – 20% | Less likely – 70%
• Women: More likely – 21% | Less likely – 69%
• CT-1: More likely – 26% | Less likely – 65%
• CT-2: More likely – 21% | Less likely – 70%
• CT-3: More likely – 20% | Less likely – 70%
• CT-4: More likely – 19% | Less likely – 70%
• CT-5: More likely – 17% | Less likely – 75%
• Republicans: More likely – 9% | Less likely – 85%
• Non-partisans: More likely – 15% | Less likely – 73%
• Democrats: More likely – 34% | Less likely – 54%

Increasing spending above cap support profile
• Conservatives: More likely – 9% | Less Likely – 84%
• Moderates: More likely – 11% | Less likely – 80%
• Liberals: More likely – 35% | Less likely – 48%
• 18 to 34: More likely – 16% | Less likely – 64%
• 35 to 49: More likely – 20% | Less likely – 63%
• 50 to 64: More likely – 18% | Less likely – 76%
• 65 or older: More likely – 14% | Less likely – 80%
• Men: More likely – 14% | Less likely – 77%
• Women: More likely – 19% | Less likely – 70%
• CT-1: More likely – 18% | Less likely – 71%
• CT-2: More likely – 19% | Less likely – 72%
• CT-3: More likely – 16% | Less likely – 74%
• CT-4: More likely – 17% | Less likely – 71%
• CT-5: More likely – 14% | Less likely – 77%
• Republicans: More likely – 6% | Less likely – 87%
• Non-partisans: More likely – 11% | Less likely – 78%
• Democrats: More likely – 31% | Less likely – 58%

 

METHODOLOGY:

This telephone survey was conducted May 12-14, 2015 among 1,006 likely general election voters in
Connecticut, with a margin of error of +/- 3.09%. Interviews were conducted using IVR technology to
landlines and live operator to cell phones. Landline interviews constituted 77% of the calls, while 23%
were conducted by cell phone.

Cory Brown is the Vice President of Data & Strategy for Cygnal, a communication and research firm, and can be
reached by email at cory@cygn.al or by phone at (202) 733-6677. Cygnal has posted a highly accurate polling
record. During the 2014 cycle, the firm conducted over 160 polls across 12 states. While the national average for
public polling in 2014 was an 8-point difference in survey results versus Election Day results, Cygnal’s was only a
2-point difference, less than half its average margin of error.

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